NBA Round 1 Preview
Final Regular Season Power Rankings
Tier 1
1- Minnesota Moose Knuckles (11-8) [+2]
2- Sporty Strauss (12-7) [+3]
3- Win’s Up Doc (14-5) [-1]
Tier 2
4- The Pullies (12-7) [+2]
5- DTC Porkchop Express (15-4) [-4]
6- Wait ‘ Til Next Year (11-8) [-2]
7- Las Cabras (10-9) [+1]
Tier 3
8- Ornery Otters (10-9) [-1]
9- The BamO’s (7-12) [-]
10- Shepherd Goods Choppers (5-14) [-]
11- Cooper Troopers (4-15) [-]
12- $traight Cash Homie (3-16) [-]
Playoff Matchups
BYES – DTC Porkchop Express (1) and The Pullies (2)
MN Moose Knuckles (3) -130 vs Wait ‘Til Next Year (6)
Win’s Up Doc (4) +75 vs Sporty Strauss (5)
CONSOLATION BYES – Las Cabras (7) and Ornery Otters (8)
The BamO’s (9) -220 vs $traight Cash Homies (12)
Shepherd Goods Choppers (10) -85 vs Cooper Troopers (11)
Notes: The regular season is over! The longest season in the League of Leagues (by a significant amount this year) has concluded in thunderous fashion with some big time trades at the end here. The season had the twists and turns of a good film. It started out with an unheralded, underdog team in the draft, Win’s Up Doc (3), putting all league of leagues teams in an air fryer and just pounding them. He won the first 8 games of the season, only to get wracked with COVID-19 issues halfway through. Ever since then, his team hasn’t been the same. There’ve been some injuries. Some regression to the mean. And somehow someway, Win’s Up Doc didn’t even get a BYE. Despite being the top-scoring team the entire season, Win’s Up Doc was supplanted by DTC Porkchop Express down the stretch.
DTC Porkchop Express (5) lost the first two games of the season, but then went 15-2 the rest of the way… an absurd run. But they lost CP3 late in the season, and GM Craig McCall simply didn’t think he had the horses to win it all. He sold his players in the last week of the season. He decided to wait until next year.
Speaking of that namesake, Wait ‘Til Next Year (6), that was another team that got off to a hot start but faltered down the stretch. A four-game losing streak in late December and early January doomed him to the 6-seed, and his team looked poor in the last week of the season, generating serious concern about his ability to contend in the playoffs.
But not all of these stories are sad. The Pullies (4) had a miraculous season! Despite being last in football they, got some win-now players that led them to the other BYE. They might not be the best team in the playoffs, but it’s a remarkable stories for two beleaguered GMs who needed something positive to carry them through this season.
Another positive is the MN Moose Knuckles (1) who came second to last in football. But that 2-point difference gives Hall a serious chance to contend in the League of Leagues as a whole. The MN Moose Knuckles Embiid-led, deep roster and easier path to the finals gives him the top seed in the League of Leagues going into the playoffs despite a short-term Devin Booker COVID illness.
But all of this likely means little if Sporty Strauss (2) wins or just makes the Championship Game. He has the league by the balls right now. If he wins, the winner of the entire season might already be decided. But this is no guarantee. The first-round matchup between Sporty Strauss and Win’s Up Doc is one for the books.
But those are the teams that made the playoffs. There’s 6 teams that didn’t. $traight Cash Homie (12) set a league record for futility this NBA season as Zion Williamson and other injuries destroyed a team that looked promising after the draft. But it all might work out for him if he can make the most out of his extra NBA assets next season to rebuild and reload.
The Cooper Troopers (11) and Shepherd Goods Choppers (10) proved how much a bad bench can sink your season. The top players for both of these rosters are solid – even great at times – but horrible snake drafts doomed them to horrific seasons.
But The BamO’s (9), the Ornery Otters (8) and Las Cabras (7) all fought hard this season. The BamO’s were rocked by injuries, but still have a competent enough team to win the Consolation Tournament. And they want to. After finishing 3rd in NFL, the BamO’s have a chance to place this season with a good end-of-season push.
The Ornery Otters (8) and Las Cabras (7) got unlucky. They both finished with winning records but couldn’t sneak into the playoffs. Hopefully these teams are better prepared for next season.
Now, all that’s left is to watch the playoffs unfold, and it’s going to be oh so exciting.
ROUND 1
MN Moose Knuckles (3) vs Wait ‘Til Next Year (6)
MN Moose Knuckles: Projected… 1465 points
Wait ‘Til Next Year: Projected … 1335 points
GAME LINE: MN Moose Knuckles -130 vs Wait ‘Til Next Year
Lineups:
PG1 – Terry Rozier (32ppg - 3 plays) vs Trae Young (41ppg - 4 plays)
PG2 – Jalen Suggs (22ppg - 4 plays) vs Tyrese Maxey (29ppg - 3 plays)
SG1 – Devin Booker (36ppg - 2 plays ???) vs Kyrie Irving (37ppg - 2 plays)
SG2 – Devin Vassell (21ppg - 2 plays) vs Ayo Dosunmu (27ppg - 3 plays)
SF3 – RJ Barrett (25ppg - 4 plays) vs Will Barton (26ppg - 4 plays)
SF4 – Terance Mann (25 proj. ppg - 4 plays) vs Marcus Morris (23 ppg - 4 plays)
PF1 – Julius Randle (36ppg - 4 plays) vs Jayson Tatum (40ppg - 3 plays)
PF2 – Wendell Carter (31ppg - 3 plays) vs Jaren Jackson Jr. (30ppg - 3 plays)
C1 – Joel Embiid (50ppg - 3 plays) vs Andre Drummond (23ppg - 3 plays)
C1 – Rudy Gobert (41ppg - 4 plays) vs Mason Plumlee (22ppg - 3 plays)
FLEX1 – Bobby Portis (29ppg - 3 plays) vs Oshae Brissett (24 proj. ppg - 3 plays)
FLEX2 – Aleksej Pokusevski (30 proj. ppg - 3 plays) vs Isaiah Stewart (22ppg - 4 plays)
FLEX3 – Jarred Vanderbilt (24ppg - 4 plays) vs Royce O’Neal (21ppg - 4 plays)
FLEX4 – Jae Crowder (22ppg - 4 plays) vs Evan Fournier (21ppg - 4 plays)
FLEX5 – Raul Neto (20 proj. ppg - 1 plays) vs Moses Moody (20ppg - 3 plays)
MN Moose Knuckles: Advantage at 8/14 positions
Wait ‘Til Next Year: Advantage at 6/14 positions
Wait ‘Til Next Year INJURIES: Kyle Lowry (Q - Personal), Anthony Davis (O - Ankle)
MN Moose Knuckles INJURIES: Devin Booker (Q - COVID), Wendell Carter (Q - Illness), Jalen Suggs (Q - Ankle), Raul Neto (Q - Ankle), Cam Johnson (Q - Right Quad Contusion), Devin Vassell (Q - Groin)
Notes: Wait ‘Til Next Year HAS to be salty about the MN Moose Knuckles squeaking in last minute for that Fhima’s gift card and division bonus. But Wait ‘Til Next Year could be even saltier after this week’s matchup. Division Rivalries is the theme of the first round of the playoffs, and these two teams are no exception. They’ve been circling each other for the division win all season long, and now they matchup.
These teams have been heading in different trajectories over the last two weeks. In fact, Wait ‘Til Next Year won a matchup a mere 3 weeks ago. But that was before the Embiid trade. Embiid only has 3 games this week, but that’s 150 points right there. Embiid is almost singlehandedly the difference between the projections.
Looking deeper, Wait ‘Til Next Year has a poor allotment of plays this week. Jayson Tatum, Jaren Jackson and Tyrese Maxey all only have 3 games this week. Trae Young still has 4, and Kyle needs a massive week out of him. Looming larger than you’d think is Kyle Lowry’s mysterious absence from his team. If he doesn’t play this week, Wait ‘Til Next Year is REALLY stretching to find players at the back of his bench.
For the MN Moose Knuckles, the big question is when does Devin Booker come back from the COVID list. Right now, projecting him to miss two and play in two seems prudent, but it could go either way. There are a lot of other injuries on this team too, but they all are minor. Wendell Carter. Jalen Suggs. Devin Vassell. Another sneaky one is Cam Johnson. If Booker misses time, Johnson would be in line to receive some of those minutes. Contrary to his opponent, however, the MN Moose Knuckles have a good bench. They have players to draw from, and the last minute trade for Terance Mann seems to be helping his projection more than one would have thought. The Moose Knuckles just can’t have all of these players missing time.
Win’s Up Doc (4) vs Sporty Strauss (5)
Win’s Up Doc: Projected … 1430 points
Sporty Strauss: Projected… 1505 points
GAME LINE: Win’s Up Doc +75 against Sporty Strauss
Lineups:
PG1 – Luka Doncic (48ppg - 4 plays) vs Mike Conley (26ppg - 4 plays)
PG2 – Dejounte Murray (46ppg - 4 plays) vs Cameron Payne (25+ proj. ppg - 4 plays)
SG1 – Desmond Bane (27ppg - 3 plays) vs DeMar DeRozan (39ppg - 3 plays)
SG2 – Kevin Porter, Jr. (24ppg - 4 plays) vs Derrick White (28ppg - 3 plays)
SF3 – Scottie Barnes (30ppg - 3 plays) vs Brandon Ingram (33ppg - 4 plays)
SF4 – Herbert Jones (23ppg - 4 plays) vs Andrew Wiggins (27ppg - 3 plays)
PF1 – Kristaps Porzingis (34ppg - 2 plays) vs Pascal Siakam (40ppg - 3 plays)
PF2 – LaMarcus Aldridge (22ppg - 3 plays) vs Al Horford (27ppg - 3 plays)
C1 – Jonas Valanciunas (34ppg - 4 plays) vs Giannis Antetekounmpo (51ppg - 3 plays)
C1 – Mo Bamba (26ppg - 4 plays) vs Deandre Ayton (32ppg - 4 plays)
FLEX1 – Jordan Poole (23ppg - 4 plays) vs Franz Wagner (25ppg - 4 plays)
FLEX2 – Brandon Clarke (22ppg - 3 plays) vs Kevin Love (24ppg - 3 plays)
FLEX3 – Malik Monk (21ppg - 4 plays) vs Reggie Jackson (24ppg - 4 plays)
FLEX4 – Kevon Looney (20ppg - 4 plays) vs Alec Burks (21ppg - 4 plays)
FLEX5 – N/A (already hit his plays) vs Chuma Okeke (21ppg - 1 plays)
Win’s Up Doc: Advantage at 2/14 positions
Sporty Strauss: Advantage at 12/14 positions
Win’s Up Doc INJURIES: Jarrett Allen (O - Hand), Dejounte Murray (Q – Calf Contusion), Dennis Schröder (Q - Ankle), Michael Porter, Jr. (O - Back)
Sporty Strauss INJURIES: Ben Simmons (Q for 3/13 – Mental Health), Draymond Green (O - Back), Dillon Brooks (Q - Ankle), Victor Oladipo (P - Knee)
Notes: Win’s Up Doc never thought he’d be in this position – projected to lose his first-round playoff matchup. And the over/under of this matchup is almost 3,000 points. Whoever loses this game likely beats any other team this week. It’s going to be a tough pill to swallow. For Win’s Up Doc, this is his season. With only 3 points in football, he needed a big point total to sneak into contention. Now, he’s in danger of only scoring 7 or 8 points compared to the 15 he was banking on as the presumptive favorite.
For Sporty Strauss, all of this is perfectly clear. Two championships in the first two sports essentially puts the league on ice. It’d make it so he’d clinch the league of leagues with a Consolation BYE in baseball depending on how other teams score. It’d allow him to start preparing for next season in all of his sports. It’s no wonder he’s making moves to win this game.
And whoever wins faces either DTC Porkchop Express’ white flagged team or The Pullies who are banged up and are generally inferior competition. DTC Porkchop Express given up on getting a championship and is content with whatever points he gets. The Pullies aren’t concerned with keeping up with the arms race of the League of Leagues. They have their BYE that could prevent them from getting last, but they don’t stand a chance against these juggernauts of teams.
The game itself could be decided by injuries. The Jarrett Allen injury is just a killer for Win’s Up Doc and swing the line by 45 points. He absolutely needs Murray to play all 4 games this week.
There are some favorable matchups for Doc as well. Jordan Poole and Kevon Looney should crush tomorrow while all the Warriors players are sitting out the front end of a back-to-back. Both Luka and Dejounte have 4 plays this week. Kevin Porter Jr is getting hot and has 4 plays. Kristaps Porzingis could get 3 plays this week and looked great, but odds are they’ll play it conservative in his return.
On the Sporty Strauss side, his depth is unbelievable right now. He has 3 really good players sitting out right now (Draymond, Brooks, Simmons), and he doesn’t really need them. His lineup is laced with competitive starts, and he has a super high floor this week. He could even find some matchups for some of his bench players that are plus. The main downside is that newly-acquired DeMar DeRozan only plays 3 games, so he’s not as much of a game-changer as he could have been.
Strauss will miss a rest day by Wiggins but avoid one from Mike Conley who sat out tonight. And who knows when Devin Booker is back, creating all the opportunity in the world for Cameron Payne to continue dominating that backcourt.
CONSOLATION TOURNAMENT
The BamO’s (9) vs $traight Cash Homie (12)
The BamO’s: Projected … 1360 points
$traight Cash Homie: Projected… 1140 points
GAME LINE: The BamO’s -220 over $traight Cash Homie
Lineups:
PG1 – Steph Curry (40ppg - 3 plays) vs Donovan Mitchell (37ppg - 4 plays)
PG2 – Jrue Holiday (34ppg - 3 plays) vs Tyler Herro (27ppg - 4 plays)
SG1 – CJ McCollum (33ppg - 4 plays) vs Caris LeVert (28ppg - 3 plays)
SG2 – Jalen Brunson (27ppg - 4 plays) vs Gary Harris (17ppg - 4 plays)
SF3 – Josh Hart (29ppg - 4 plays) vs Jae’Sean Tate (24ppg - 4 plays)
SF4 – Bogdan Bogdanovic (23ppg - 4 plays) vs Malik Beasley (17ppg - 4 plays)
PF1 – Miles Bridges (35ppg - 3 plays) vs Robert Covington (22ppg - 4 plays)
PF2 – Kyle Kuzma (31ppg - 3 plays) vs Maxi Kleber (20ppg - 4 plays)
C1 – Bam Adebayo (36ppg - 4 plays) vs Myles Turner (30ppg - 3 plays)
C1 – Daniel Theis (16ppg - 2 plays) vs Jaxson Hayes (16ppg - 4 plays)
FLEX1 – Marcus Smart (26ppg - 2 plays) vs PJ Tucker (19ppg - 4 plays)
FLEX2 – Buddy Hield (22ppg - 3 plays) vs Danilo Gallinari (18ppg - 4 plays)
FLEX3 – Carmelo Anthony (22ppg - 4 plays) vs Cedi Osman (17ppg - 3 plays)
FLEX4 – Davion Mitchell (18ppg - 3 plays) vs Jonathan Kuminga (14ppg - 1 play)
FLEX5 – Duncan Robinson (18ppg - 4 plays) vs N/A (already hit his plays)
The BamO’s: Advantage at 12/14 positions
$traight Cash Homie: Advantage at 1/14 positions
The BamO’s INJURIES: Paul George (O - Shoulder), Jusuf Nurkic (O - Foot), Steph Curry (Q - Rest)
$traight Cash Homie INJURIES: Myles Turner (O - Foot), Zion Williamson (O - Foot), Jonathan Isaac (O - Hand), Bradley Beal (O - Hand), Maxi Kleber (Ankle)
Notes: This will likely be an absolute shellacking. We won’t spend too much time on this, but The BamO’s are projected more points than two playoffs teams. They’re hitting their stride and this is as close to a BYE matchup as you can get. For The BamO’s, Sam should be looking forward to week two and optimizing his lineup for a showdown against the Ornery Otters, the 8th best team in the league of Leagues who sold an asset away last week. The BamO’s are primed to make the Consolation Championship. Maybe PG13 is back by then.
Shepherd Goods Choppers (10) vs Cooper Troopers (11)
Shepherd Goods Choppers: Projected… 1340 points
Cooper Troopers: Projected … 1240 points
GAME LINE: Choppers -100 over Cooper Troopers
Lineups:
PG1 – Tyrese Haliburton (38ppg on IND - 3 plays) vs James Harden (45ppg - 3 plays)
PG2 – S. Dinwiddie (25ppg - 4 plays) vs Devonte’ Graham (21ppg - 4 plays)
SG1 – Fred VanVleet (38ppg - 3 plays) vs Khris Middleton (32ppg - 3 plays)
SG2 – Klay Thompson (25ppg - 4 plays) vs Kevin Huerter (20ppg - 4 plays)
SF3 – Jimmy Butler (40ppg - 4 plays) vs Kelly Oubre (24ppg - 3 plays)
SF4 – Talen Horton-Tucker (18ppg - 4 plays) vs Darius Bazley (22ppg - 3 plays)
PF1 – Tobias Harris (32ppg - 3 plays) vs Christian Wood (33ppg - 4 plays)
PF2 – Kelly Olynyk (20ppg - 3 plays) vs Evan Mobley (31ppg - 3 plays)
C1 – Karl-Anthony Towns (42ppg - 4 plays) vs Nikola Vucevic (40ppg - 3 plays)
C1 – Robert Williams (32ppg - 3 plays) vs Onyeka Okongwu (21ppg - 4 plays)
FLEX1 – Jalen Green (19ppg - 4 plays) vs Richaun Holmes (18ppg - 3 plays)
FLEX2 – Lonnie Walker (17ppg - 4 plays) vs Kyle Anderson (20ppg - 3 plays)
FLEX3 – Isaiah Roby (17ppg - 3 plays) vs Alperen Sengun (19ppg - 4 plays)
FLEX4 – Jeff Green (16ppg - 4 plays) vs Donte DiVincenzo (19ppg on SAC - 3 plays)
FLEX5 – N/A (already hit his plays) vs Javonte Green (17ppg - 2 plays)
Cooper Troopers: Advantage at 9/14 positions
Shepherd Goods Choppers: Advantage at 5/14 positions
Shepherd Goods Choppers INJURIES: Fred Van Vleet (Q - Knee)
Cooper Trooper INJURIES: Damian Lillard (O - Abdomen), Nikola Vucevic (Q - Hamstring), Kevin Huerter (Q - Shoulder)
Notes: This matchup is interesting. A lot relies on the health of Fred Van Vleet. If he doesn’t play, this is as close to an even line as you can get. And his healthy is VERY up in the air.
For the Cooper Troopers, a win puts a lot of distance between him and $traight Cash Homie for last place. The Troopers could still mini-tank in MLB if they win this game, targeting assets that are better for future years than this year. With 6 points in football and a minimum of 3 points in NBA with a win, that’d be a 6-point difference at the minimum between he and Jack. A loss and that drops down to 5 point if he can beat Jack in the loser’s game and only 3 if he loses that dreaded last place game.
For the Shepherd Goods Choppers, a consolation run gives them a chance to compete this year. After getting 4th in NFL, they could sneak into placement with a run.
The winner of this game likely plays Las Cabras who look hot right now. The magic of a Consolation run could end there.